The impact of rising international crude oil price on China's economy: an empirical analysis with CGE model Online publication date: Mon, 13-Aug-2007
by Ying Fan, Jian-Ling Jiao, Qiao-Mei Liang, Zhi-Yong Han, Yi-Ming Wei
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 27, No. 4, 2007
Abstract: Many studies, as well as historical events, indicate that oil price shocks affect the macro economy of a country. In this paper we build a Chinese Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with which we simulate the impact on the Chinese economy of international crude oil price when it rises by 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 50% and 100%. Simulation also identifies the effects of low/medium/high technological advances in the crude oil mining, petroleum and chemical and transportation sectors on fighting the risk of oil price shocks. The results indicate that international crude oil price has negative effects on Chinese real GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, amongst a range of economic indices. Technological advances have positive effects on fighting back the risk of oil price shocks, especially the technological advances in petroleum and chemicals, whilst the transportation sector has a greater effect on resisting oil price risk. An international oil price hike holds more disadvantages for rural residents' welfare. These results would be valuable reference information for policy makers.
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com