Title: Effects of Ecuador's regional trade agreements: a partial equilibrium analysis

Authors: Daniel Gómez Abella; Catherine Pereira Villa

Addresses: International School of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Universidad de La Sabana, Chía, 250001, Colombia ' International School of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Universidad de La Sabana, Chía, 250001, Colombia

Abstract: This study presents an empirical evaluation of Ecuador's regional trade agreements (RTAs) with Mexico, China, and the Pacific Alliance on trade, production, and welfare. The analysis utilises the global simulation model (GSIM) and incorporating estimated elasticities. The findings reveal that the bilateral RTAs with Mexico and China yield substantial trade creation effects, while the RTA with the Pacific Alliance displays heterogeneous impacts on trade among member countries. Notably, the RTA with China is anticipated to drive significant expansion in Ecuador's production capabilities, in stark contrast to the more modest growth projected under the RTAs with Mexico and the Pacific Alliance.

Keywords: regional trade agreements; trade creation; trade diversion; partial equilibrium model; welfare effects; GSIM model; tariff liberalisation; bilateral trade; Ecuador.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.148047

International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2025 Vol.21 No.3, pp.354 - 374

Received: 02 Dec 2024
Accepted: 29 Apr 2025
Published online: 15 Aug 2025 *

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