Title: A machine learning decision tree model to predict consumer purchase behaviour: a microeconomic view from online social platforms in Iran

Authors: Pejman Ebrahimi; Mohammad Naeim Hassani; Seyed Mohammad Khansari; Aidin Salamzadeh; Maria Fekete-Farkas

Addresses: Doctoral School of Economic and Regional Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE), Gödöllő2100, Hungary ' The Innovation and Entrepreneurship Research Lab, GECC, 18 King William Street, London, EC4N 7BP, UK ' Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Shahid Ashrafi Esfahani University, Isfahan, Iran ' Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556311, Iran ' Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE), Gödöllő2100, Hungary

Abstract: This study proposes a map to predict consumer purchase behaviour using a decision tree algorithm using machine learning. Python programming language (Jupyter and Visual Studio Code IDEs) is used accordingly. The study's statistical population involved Iranian online social platform users who made at least one online purchase. Instagram, Facebook, Telegram, YouTube, and WhatsApp platforms were used for data gathering. According to the map results presented based on data of demographic variables of 376 respondents, Instagram is the most popular platform in Iran with a high difference in terms of advertising and online shopping. It has more popularity in almost all age and education groups; however, other platforms also have their users according to their demographic attributes. The proposed model is also practically capable of prediction with an accuracy of >96%. This research contributes to the extant literature by using machine learning and its practical libraries to predict consumer behaviour.

Keywords: media brand; co-creation; value proposition; customer loyalty; social media.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBG.2025.147956

International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 2025 Vol.40 No.4, pp.289 - 302

Received: 12 Dec 2021
Accepted: 23 Feb 2022
Published online: 12 Aug 2025 *

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