Article: The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on inflation in Egypt Journal: International Journal of Economics and Business Research (IJEBR) 2025 Vol.29 No.16 pp.1 - 23 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on inflation in Egypt and explores whether this impact is symmetric or asymmetric. Using two decades of quarterly data on various determinants of inflation and a measure of global EPU, the paper employs linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) regression models to analyse this relationship. Robustness checks, including recursive estimation of coefficients, and conducting forecasting analysis, are performed to support the findings. The results indicate that global EPU asymmetrically influences inflation in Egypt where increases in global EPU lead to a decrease in inflation by 20% and decreases in global EPU lead to an increase in inflation by 21%. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the role of global EPU in driving domestic inflation in Egypt. Understanding global EPU's impact on inflation aids the Central Bank of Egypt when shaping monetary policy to manage inflation. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on inflation in Egypt

Authors: Ahmed W. Elroukh

Addresses: Department of Economics and Finance, College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University, Oman

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on inflation in Egypt and explores whether this impact is symmetric or asymmetric. Using two decades of quarterly data on various determinants of inflation and a measure of global EPU, the paper employs linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) regression models to analyse this relationship. Robustness checks, including recursive estimation of coefficients, and conducting forecasting analysis, are performed to support the findings. The results indicate that global EPU asymmetrically influences inflation in Egypt where increases in global EPU lead to a decrease in inflation by 20% and decreases in global EPU lead to an increase in inflation by 21%. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the role of global EPU in driving domestic inflation in Egypt. Understanding global EPU's impact on inflation aids the Central Bank of Egypt when shaping monetary policy to manage inflation.

Keywords: inflation; economic policy uncertainty; EPU; NARDL; Egypt.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2025.147767

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2025 Vol.29 No.16, pp.1 - 23

Received: 21 May 2025
Accepted: 30 Jun 2025
Published online: 30 Jul 2025 *

Title: The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on inflation in Egypt

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