Title: Comparison of two models for projected discharge outflow forecasting: application of SWAT and T-F Markov at Mkomazi River Catchment, South Africa

Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo; Ikudayisi Akinola; Abdultaofeek Abayomi

Addresses: Centre for Global Change, Walter Sisulu University, Private Bag X1, UNITRA, 5117, Mthatha Campus, Eastern Cape, South Africa ' Civil Engineering Department, Walter Sisulu University, P.O. Box 1421, East London, 5200, Buffalo City Campus, Eastern Cape EC, South Africa ' Honorary Research Associate, Walter Sisulu University, East London, 5200, South Africa

Abstract: Projected impacts of climate change on water balance and yield are needed to give an overview of periodic water availability for structural regulation, adaptation, and mitigation strategies in conserving the available water resources. This study compares the possible future responses of Mkomazi River Catchment (MRC), KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa using two models, SWAT and T-F-Markov. It proposes adaptation strategies toward integrated watershed management. To achieve this, future regional downscaled meteorological data from 2000-2060 was fed into the soil and water assessment tool to assess the impacts on projected outflow simulation with simulated Markov outflow projection. The SWAT simulated result reveals a better regression plot correlation coefficient of 0.75 to 0.77 for projected T-F Markov monthly discharge outflow at the validation stage with the historical records. Water resources managers would find the tools employed to model spatially distributed and time-varying hydro-meteorologic datasets useful for water balance and water yield projected quantification.

Keywords: climate change; gamma autoregressive; Markov outflow; water balance; water yield.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2025.147306

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2025 Vol.25 No.2, pp.200 - 224

Received: 21 Apr 2023
Accepted: 18 Oct 2023
Published online: 14 Jul 2025 *

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