Title: Towards participatory decision-making under deep uncertainty: benefits and challenges

Authors: Karoline Führer; Jan H. Kwakkel; Floortje M. d'Hont; Etiënne A.J.A. Rouwette; Cornelia Els van Daalen

Addresses: Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, Netherlands ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, Netherlands ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, Netherlands ' Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, 6525 AJ Nijmegen, Netherlands ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, Netherlands

Abstract: Decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) provides a set of tools and methods to find resolutions for complex wicked problems, which requires considering multiple actors and uncertainty. However, not all characteristics of wicked problems are typically addressed by the DMDU toolkit. We identified three key shortcomings: the focus on analytical techniques, a lack of attention for sense-making of analytical artefacts with the various parties to a decision, and no attention for coming to a decision. Engaging stakeholders in the DMDU process is a promising direction for overcoming these shortcomings. This study addresses the need for a formalised approach for participatory DMDU. As such, we provide a general structure for participatory DMDU processes and present the potential benefits of engaging stakeholders for each step. We present four challenges in establishing a practice of participatory DMDU: 1) selecting promising projects; 2) designing valuable processes; 3) developing and documenting methods; and 4) evaluating transparently.

Keywords: DMDU; decision-making under deep uncertainty; decision making; wicked problems; participation; participatory modelling; stakeholder engagement; complexity; uncertainty; facilitation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2025.147284

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2025 Vol.25 No.2, pp.150 - 173

Received: 22 Nov 2023
Accepted: 23 Apr 2024
Published online: 14 Jul 2025 *

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