Title: A predictive model for cash or in-kind transfer in welfare scheme: implications for Indian public distribution system

Authors: Arun Kumar Biswal

Addresses: Institute of Management Technology, Hyderabad, Survey No. 38, Cherlaguda Village, Shamshabad Mandal, Ranga Reddy District, Telangana, Pin-501218, India

Abstract: This study identifies the key socio-economic factors that influence the choice of in-kind and/or cash transfer mechanism used in welfare schemes. We collect secondary data with respect to the identified indicators for different countries and the respective welfare methods they use. Through logistic regression, we investigate the relationship between these dependent and independent variables to establish a predictive model and then validate it through K-Fold Cross-Validation. Our analysis shows that food production index, global hunger index and literacy rate are significant factors those decide whether a country should use in-kind food transfer or cash transfer. This study is a unique attempt to establish a logistic regression model between the independent socio-economic factors of a country and the food-security mechanism they use. Food security is a global issue and the findings from this research could be used to recommend a suitable transfer method in developing countries.

Keywords: food security; developing countries; food policy; public distribution system; PDS; direct benefit transfer.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSOM.2025.146898

International Journal of Services and Operations Management, 2025 Vol.51 No.2, pp.139 - 158

Received: 03 Apr 2023
Accepted: 09 Apr 2023
Published online: 25 Jun 2025 *

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