Title: Revisiting the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis: a nonlinear panel data approach

Authors: Chenglin Huang; Siok Kun Sek; Wai Mun Har

Addresses: School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Minden, Penang, Malaysia ' School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Minden, Penang, Malaysia ' Faculty of Accountancy and Management, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Bandar Sungai Long, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia

Abstract: This study re-examines the EPC hypothesis between unemployment and carbon emissions across 1991-2021, using a novel of pooled mean group nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model and panel quantile regression. Diverging from prior linear assumptions, we extend the examination on the nonlinear nexus by incorporating the asymmetries of unemployment in the estimation. Results are compared across emission and unemployment extremes. Results reveal no short-term EPC validity but uncover a complex long-term nexus: rising unemployment reduces emissions in high-unemployment economies, yet increases them in low-emission countries. Conversely, falling unemployment drives emission growth in carbon-intensive nations, reflecting rebound effects from industrial recovery.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; panel data; PMG-NARDL model; panel quantile regression; EPC hypothesis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2025.146662

International Journal of Global Warming, 2025 Vol.36 No.3, pp.289 - 310

Received: 02 Oct 2024
Accepted: 25 Feb 2025
Published online: 11 Jun 2025 *

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