Title: Consent probability

Authors: Niels Lind, Torbjorn Thedeen

Addresses: 404–1033 Belmont Avenue, Victoria, BC V8S 3T4, Canada. ' Center for Safety Research, Royal Technical University, S 10044 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: The quality of a risk analysis depends on the quality of its constituent probabilities, which are often subject to doubt. The passe (but still widely accepted) dichotomy between subjective and objective probabilities is shown to be inadequate for decision making. Invoking Karl Popper|s three-world ontogeny, two other concepts of particular relevance to engineering decision making are introduced: judgemental probability and consent probability, which should satisfy the professional criterion of |due diligence|. Criteria are suggested to help assess the quality of given probabilities.

Keywords: consent probability; dependability; experts; judgemental probability; risk analysis; risk assessment; engineering decision making; due diligence.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2007.014660

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2007 Vol.7 No.6/7, pp.804 - 812

Published online: 23 Jul 2007 *

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