Title: From conflict to empty stomachs, empty classrooms, and empty wallets

Authors: Marcus Marktanner; Almuth Merkel

Addresses: Department of Economics, Finance, and Quantitative Analysis, Coles College of Business, 560 Parliament Garden Way NW, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA; School of Conflict Management, Peacebuilding and Development, Radow College of Humanities and Social Sciences, 3201 Campus Loop Road, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA ' College of Business and Public Management, Wenzhou-Kean University, 88 Daxue Rd, Ouhai, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, 325060, China

Abstract: This paper examines the direct and indirect effects of conflict on food insecurity, education, and income. We examine a panel dataset with 169 countries over the period from 1990 to 2017. To estimate the long-run equilibrium and short-run effects, we employ pooled OLS regression and error correction models, respectively. We find that the lagged indirect effects of conflict on income through an increase of food insecurity and reduced educational opportunities outweigh the direct effects by a factor of around 1.5. Our findings add to the literature on the long-term indirect effects of conflict. In order to illustrate the socioeconomic significance of our model, we discuss its simulation potential in the context of Jordan. As for policy implications, we argue that, whenever possible, humanitarian assistance programming should not end with saving lives by fighting conflict-induced malnutrition, but also include efforts for continued access to education.

Keywords: conflict; education; food insecurity; empirical estimates; simulation model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2025.146573

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2025 Vol.21 No.3, pp.244 - 264

Received: 28 Aug 2020
Accepted: 28 Jan 2021
Published online: 05 Jun 2025 *

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