Title: The impact of macroeconomic determinants on gold prices: an empirical study on Indian market using ARDL approach

Authors: Sonia Garg; Karam Pal Narwal; Priyanka Rani

Addresses: Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar, 125001, Haryana, India ' Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar, 125001, Haryana, India ' Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar, 125001, Haryana, India

Abstract: The present study investigates the relationship between gold prices and macroeconomic determinants such as the consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (INT), and exchange rate (EXR) by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for the period spanning from January 2011 to March 2020 in India. The results of the study found that the price of gold has a cointegration relationship with inflation, GDP, interest rate, exchange rate and stock market index. Further, in the long-run, CPI and the stock market index are the major macroeconomic variables that impact gold prices. In the short-run, only the exchange rate significantly influences gold prices, along with the different lagged periods of other variables. The results of this study are significant for economists, policymakers, investors and academicians.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants; gold; autoregressive distributed lag model; futures prices; exchange rate.

DOI: 10.1504/IJICBM.2025.146444

International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 2025 Vol.35 No.1, pp.77 - 95

Received: 06 Jan 2023
Accepted: 15 Aug 2023
Published online: 30 May 2025 *

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