Title: Land urbanisation's impact on carbon dioxide emissions of China: from extended EKC hypothesis

Authors: Zhao Qiaozhi; Meng Yuxin

Addresses: Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 071003 Baoding, Hebei Province, China ' Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 071003 Baoding, Hebei Province, China

Abstract: Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have been one of increasingly significant development goals for China during its high-quality development. Land urbanisation is one subject of the new style urbanisation for balancing human life and sustainable development. Therefore, land urbanisation and carbon emissions are two main factors that play a virtual role in China's high-quality development. Land urbanisation may cause carbon emissions growth, such as promote more fossil energy consumption. This study applies a spatial Durbin model to explore out the relationship between land urbanisation and carbon emissions using China's provincial yearly data from 2008 to 2021. Further construct industry (CI) development and fiscal revenue (FR)-expenditure state are both evaluated as the mediating roles in their relationship. Spatial spillover among 30 provinces is also considered as an important factor to affect the relations. The findings revealed as follows. First, land urbanisation of a province makes positive effect on its own carbon emissions. However, they show inverted U-shaped relationship on its neighbours. Concerning CI's mediating effect, it is significant only through spatial spillovers. FR's mediating paths are both significant for its own and neighbours. Therefore, proactive actions are necessary to mitigate carbon emissions of land urbanisation.

Keywords: land urbanisation; carbon dioxide emissions; environmental Kuznets curve; EKC; spatial Durbin model; SDM; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2025.145673

International Journal of Global Warming, 2025 Vol.36 No.1, pp.1 - 22

Received: 29 Jul 2024
Accepted: 03 Nov 2024
Published online: 14 Apr 2025 *

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