Title: Trade-off between food security, climate change and rice productivity in Nigeria: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL

Authors: Abdullahi Baba Mohammed

Addresses: School of Economics, Finance and Banking, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

Abstract: Plagued with existing low productivity, the rice sector in Nigeria fails to meet up with rising demand. Further worsened by climate change, food security continues to deteriorate. Therefore, this study considered the complex and dynamic relationship to assess the asymmetric and non-asymmetric impact of climate change (CO₂ emission), food insecurity, agricultural promotion policy (DumAPP), and population growth on rice productivity (RP). Using data spanning from 1961 to 2018, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL and NARDL) were employed for the analysis. The ARDL model indicates a negative and significant long run impact of the food insecurity, CO₂ and DumAPP, while population had a positive impact. Alternatively, the NARDL affirms the existence of long run asymmetric relationship between depth of hunger, DumAPP and population. The study recommends sectoral policies that take into account climate smart agriculture, and the non- linearity of the relationship between examined factors and RP.

Keywords: NARDL; climate change; policies; rice productivity; food insecurity; Nigeria.

DOI: 10.1504/AJESD.2025.145485

African Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, 2025 Vol.10 No.2, pp.147 - 169

Received: 11 Jun 2021
Accepted: 08 Aug 2021
Published online: 01 Apr 2025 *

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