Title: The Caputo fractional derivative of SQEIRP model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand

Authors: Sowwanee Jitsinchayakul; Usa Wannasingha Humphries; Amir Khan

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 126, Pracha-Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand ' Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 126, Pracha-Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand ' Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhawa, Pakistan

Abstract: This research aims to study the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasising the importance of flexible approaches that can provide accurate and comprehensive predictions of pandemic dynamics, which are essential for effective planning and response. The model, introduced as the Caputo fractional derivative of the SQEIRP model, has been adjusted to reflect the lifestyle of the Thai population during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work examines the basic properties of the Caputo fractional derivative model, including the existence and uniqueness of solution, positive solution, and bounded solution. Additionally, the stability of the model is analysed by determining the basic reproduction number (R₀) and assessing local and global stability at the disease-free equilibrium point. The analysis reveals that the solutions obtained from the Caputo fractional derivative model yield flexible and more detailed results when compared to actual data, with R₀ values of 2.61, 2.59, 2.56, 2.54, 2.52, and 2.49 for fractional derivatives of 0.99, 0.98, 0.97, 0.96, and 0.95, respectively.

Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19; Caputo fractional derivative; basic reproduction numbers; R₀; Thailand.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSDE.2024.145223

International Journal of Dynamical Systems and Differential Equations, 2024 Vol.13 No.5, pp.488 - 512

Received: 19 Apr 2024
Accepted: 08 Jan 2025
Published online: 26 Mar 2025 *

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