Title: Impact of Russia-Ukraine invasion on commodity prices in South Africa

Authors: Roshnay R. Britz; Adefemi A. Obalade; Anthanasius F. Tita

Addresses: Faculty of Economic and Management Science, Department Finance, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17/Robert Sobukwe Rd., Bellville South, Cape town, South Africa ' Faculty of Economic and Management Science, Department Finance, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17/Robert Sobukwe Rd., Bellville South, Cape town, South Africa ' Faculty of Economic and Management Science, Department Finance, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17/Robert Sobukwe Rd., Bellville South, Cape town, South Africa

Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine invasion presents one of the most trending news in 2022. Economies having solid ties with Russia are exposed to the contagion effects of the crisis. The South African economy is strongly linked to Russia via international trade and the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) alliance. This study investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on daily and monthly commodity prices in South Africa for the 2015-2023 period. The study applies descriptive statistics, dummy regression model and sub-period analysis to evaluate wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rate before and during the Russia-Ukraine invasion. The descriptive analysis and regression results indicate an increase in wheat prices, oil prices and inflation rates during the post-invasion period compared to the pre-invasion period. This implies a significant impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion on these economic indicators in South Africa. Policy implications of the findings are highlighted in the concluding section.

Keywords: inflation rate; oil prices; wheat prices; Russia-Ukraine invasion; international trade.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMEF.2025.145195

International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 2025 Vol.18 No.1, pp.24 - 33

Received: 19 Jan 2023
Accepted: 05 Dec 2023
Published online: 25 Mar 2025 *

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