Title: The global inflation cycle and the dollarisation system with the interlink with commodities: an application of the Bayesian network analysis

Authors: Amira Hakim

Addresses: Department of Economics, ISIGK, University of Kairouen, Avenue Khemais El Alouini, 3100-Kairouan, Tunisia; LPS, Faculty of Science of Sfax, University of Sfax, Route de la Soukra Km 4-BP 1171-3000-Sfax, Tunisia

Abstract: This paper investigates the dollarisation of the international monetary system within the catalyst of global inflation using the commodities under the connectedness of the selected aggregates as an intermediary within the Bayesian network model and over a time horizon during the period Q1 1984 to Q4 2020. The Bayesian network approach results reveal that energy and gold act as hedges for the financialisation of the economy and therefore for stabilising global inflation. Our findings also indicate that the capital market and cryptocurrencies do not have significant impacts on the dollarisation of the monetary system. Moreover, the findings of the study show that the significant impact of commodities stabilising the global inflation cycle seems to be significant for the dollarisation of the monetary system.

Keywords: global inflation; dollarisation; oil; gold; Bayesian network.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.145012

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2025 Vol.15 No.1/2, pp.94 - 115

Received: 18 Jul 2023
Accepted: 04 May 2024
Published online: 17 Mar 2025 *