Title: Navigating the VUCA waters: unleashing organisational innovation through scenario planning

Authors: Lance Mortlock; Oleksiy Osiyevskyy

Addresses: Ernst & Young LLP, Calgary City Centre, 2200 – 215 2nd Street SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 1M4, Canada; Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, 2200 – 215 2nd Street SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 1M4, Canada ' Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive N.W., Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4, Canada

Abstract: Today, organisations across all industries face the challenges of volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. To stay competitive in such contexts, it is crucial to manage the rate and scope of change in new and different ways through constant innovation. This study focuses on scenario planning, a systematic approach for thinking and exploring the future, allowing organisations to proactively plan for and effectively adjust to environmental turbulence through deliberate innovation. The findings are based on a qualitative case-based empirical study focusing on how scenario planning affects innovation within four organisations. The results demonstrate the mechanisms through which scenario planning enables innovative idea generation when supported by the proper engagement, culture, integration, people, governance and structure. Based on the cross-case comparison, the study also offers a maturity model and provides the corresponding managerial implications.

Keywords: scenario planning; innovation; volatile; uncertain; complex and ambiguous; VUCA; governance; culture.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEIM.2024.144394

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management, 2024 Vol.28 No.3/4, pp.170 - 191

Received: 12 Oct 2023
Accepted: 03 Jun 2024
Published online: 11 Feb 2025 *

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