Title: System dynamics simulation for reducing the number of lifestyle-related disease patients and medical costs in Japan by promoting behavioural changes in multiple generations

Authors: Shingo Kawai; Masako Toriya; Tetsuya Toma

Addresses: Faculty of Information Design, Tokyo Information Design Professional University, 2-7-1 Komatsugawa, Edogawa-ku, Tokyo, 132-0034, Japan; Global Research Institute, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8345, Japan ' Global Research Institute, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8345, Japan ' Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 223-8526, Japan; Global Research Institute, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8345, Japan

Abstract: Super-aging societies are emerging in many countries. In these societies, a significant proportion of medical costs is accounted for by lifestyle-related diseases (LDs). As LDs gradually worsen and develop into more serious diseases, behavioural changes should be promoted among the public to prevent the onset of LDs. In this study, we simulated a reduction in the number of patients with LD and medical costs through behavioural changes, using our recently proposed system dynamics model and statistical data in Japan. We investigated the contribution of each generation and showed that behavioural changes in multiple generations effectively reduced the number of LD patients and medical costs. The estimation error was reduced by selecting an adequate reference year. The versatility of our model was confirmed by comparing the rate of reduction in the number of patients and in medical costs calculated using the data for a subset of LDs with those calculated using the data for all LDs. Thus, if statistical data are available, our model can predict the number of patients with LDs and medical costs in any country.

Keywords: system dynamics; lifestyle-related diseases; behavioural change; morbidity rate; agile goal setting; government policymaking.

DOI: 10.1504/IJASM.2025.144168

International Journal of Agile Systems and Management, 2025 Vol.18 No.1, pp.52 - 73

Received: 14 Nov 2023
Accepted: 09 May 2024
Published online: 30 Jan 2025 *

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