Title: Volatility of oil price and exchange rate in India

Authors: Priyanka Banerji; Mohammed B. Shettima

Addresses: School of Management, The North Cap University Gurgaon, Haryana, India ' Economics Department, School of Interdisciplinary and Liberal Studies, Suresh Gyan Vihar University Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

Abstract: The most demanding sector in today's era is the energy sector. India is now the third highest consumer of crude oil in the world, after the USA and China, with 4.6% share of world total according to Worldometer. Thus, when there is an increase in the oil prices, the Indian economy suffers relentlessly. This paper seeks to carry out a study on the volatility of oil price and the real exchange rate and its effects on Indian rupee and the US dollar. The study will make use of the Garch analysis model to analyse and predict the volatility of the two variables (crude oil prices and exchange rate). Empirical findings points out an asymmetrical relationship between crude oil prices and dollar exchange rate. Recommendations are made to the Indian Government to provide effective energy security source by establishing strategic crude oil storage facilities so as to reduce importation of crude oil.

Keywords: energy; exchange rate; Garch analysis; India; oil price; volatility.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBG.2025.143581

International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 2025 Vol.39 No.1, pp.126 - 139

Received: 15 Jul 2020
Accepted: 05 Aug 2021
Published online: 02 Jan 2025 *

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