Title: Factors affecting the default risk of private customers at state-owned commercial banks in Vietnam

Authors: Kim Quoc Trung Nguyen

Addresses: Faculty of Accounting – Auditing, University of Finance – Marketing, 778 Nguyen Kiem, Ward 4, Phu Nhuan District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Abstract: The article estimates the influence of factors on the credit default risk of private customers at state-owned commercial banks in Ho Chi Minh City from 2019 to 2022. The article employs a quantitative research method using a binary logistic regression model to analyse the extent of the impact of various factors on the credit default risk probability of individual customers. The research results reveal that the model includes six statistically significant factors that affect the credit default probability of customers: loan term, income diversification, COVID-19, cash flows for repayment and loan purpose. Furthermore, through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the author concludes that there is no difference between actual and predicted values in predicting the default risk of private customers.

Keywords: default risk; private customers; binary logistic; state-owned commercial bank; Vietnam.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPM.2025.143521

International Journal of Procurement Management, 2025 Vol.22 No.1, pp.22 - 36

Received: 06 Oct 2023
Accepted: 14 Oct 2023
Published online: 30 Dec 2024 *