Article: A demand forecasting method integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches and its application in cigarette inventory Journal: International Journal of Computing Science and Mathematics (IJCSM) 2024 Vol.20 No.3 pp.177 - 187 Abstract: Reasonable demand forecasting is vital for an enterprise to determine adequate production to deal with market requirements and maintain low-level inventory. We propose an integrated demand forecasting model that combines qualitative and quantitative methods to forecast specific demands. Within the framework of the model, we propose a qualitative forecasting method that combines analytic hierarchical processes and evidence theory, and a seasonal quadratic exponential smoothing (SQES) method that corrects predicted results by multiplying a seasonal factor. The proposed model is applied to the demand for cigarette inventory of a tobacco company in China. Several quantitative methods are implemented to produce forecast results, while the qualitative method is performed to obtain a forecast interval. The proposed model is demonstrated to be capable of forecasting the actual demand reliably. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: A demand forecasting method integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches and its application in cigarette inventory

Authors: Weidong Lou; Yong Jin; Hailong Lu; Yanghua Gao; Xue Xu

Addresses: Information Center, China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co., LTD., Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China ' Information Center, China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co., LTD., Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China ' Information Center, China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co., LTD., Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China ' Information Center, China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co., LTD., Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China ' Information Center, China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co., LTD., Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310009, China

Abstract: Reasonable demand forecasting is vital for an enterprise to determine adequate production to deal with market requirements and maintain low-level inventory. We propose an integrated demand forecasting model that combines qualitative and quantitative methods to forecast specific demands. Within the framework of the model, we propose a qualitative forecasting method that combines analytic hierarchical processes and evidence theory, and a seasonal quadratic exponential smoothing (SQES) method that corrects predicted results by multiplying a seasonal factor. The proposed model is applied to the demand for cigarette inventory of a tobacco company in China. Several quantitative methods are implemented to produce forecast results, while the qualitative method is performed to obtain a forecast interval. The proposed model is demonstrated to be capable of forecasting the actual demand reliably.

Keywords: demand forecasting; qualitative forecasting; quantitative forecasting; AHP; analytic hierarchical process; evidence theory; exponential smoothing.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCSM.2024.142726

International Journal of Computing Science and Mathematics, 2024 Vol.20 No.3, pp.177 - 187

Received: 18 Dec 2023
Accepted: 25 Jun 2024
Published online: 19 Nov 2024 *

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Title: A demand forecasting method integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches and its application in cigarette inventory

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