Title: Modelling drought as a climate change indicator in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh

Authors: Noor-E-Ashmaul Husna; Sheikh Hefzul Bari; G.M. Tarekul Islam; A.K.M. Saiful Islam; Md. Manjurul Hussain

Addresses: Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh ' Graduate School of Symbiotic Systems Science and Technology, Fukushima University, 1 Kanayagawa, Fukushima City, 960-1296, Japan ' Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh ' Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh ' Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

Abstract: In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of meteorological drought in the southwest region of Bangladesh using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and the Mann-Kendall trend test. Furthermore, trends in the initial form of RDI (α_k) are assessed using the Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall tests to find any indication of climate change. The results show that the study area has experienced moderate to extreme droughts in the past, with an increasing frequency in recent years showing a seasonal nature. The negative trend in the annual and most seasonal standardised RDI (RDI_st) series suggests that drought severity will increase in the future. At the same time, trends in the initial RDI (α_k) suggest a potential change in the climate, especially after 1990. The resulting change in precipitation, or potential evapotranspiration (PET), may significantly affect surface water sources during dry seasons.

Keywords: climate change; meteorological drought; Southwest Bangladesh; reconnaissance drought index; RDI; drought management; drought monitoring; sequential Mann-Kendall test.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2024.142022

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2024 Vol.18 No.4, pp.351 - 367

Received: 18 May 2023
Accepted: 03 Jul 2023
Published online: 07 Oct 2024 *

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