Title: Price inflation in the agricultural sector during the COVID-19 pandemic: is it a supply or demand issue?

Authors: Muhammad Ather Ashraf; Omar Masood; Bora Aktan; Mohamed Sayed Abou Elseoud

Addresses: University of Management and Technology, Lahore, 54770, Pakistan ' School of Accountancy and Finance, University of Lahore, Pakistan ' College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Bahrain ' College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Bahrain; Economics Department, Faculty of Management Sciences, Sadat Academy for Management Sciences, Egypt

Abstract: The current study intends to investigate the imbalance between agricultural supply and demand during the COVID-19 outbreak in the US economy. The time frame is determined by the vaccination rollout, which would start at the end of 2020 and run through August 31, 2021. The study's dependent variable is the Bloomberg Agriculture Index, while its independent variables are macroeconomic indicators, commodities indices, transport indices, the Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index (IDEMV), SPY index, and ten-year treasury. This article utilises the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) technique, the variance inflation factor, and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis. According to the study's findings, there is a correlation between demand and the influence of the agricultural index, and the total market is affected differently by economic stimulus policy than it is by the agricultural index. These insights might be beneficial for future studies and policy decisions.

Keywords: agriculture index; IDEMV; marine index.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2024.141498

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2024 Vol.28 No.3/4, pp.294 - 303

Received: 18 May 2022
Accepted: 15 Sep 2022
Published online: 18 Sep 2024 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article