Title: Effect of hydrological model selection in climate change impact assessment in the Dano tropical catchment (Burkina-Faso)

Authors: Yacouba Yira; Aymar Y. Bossa; Ngague Hisseine Ganda; Djigbo F. Badou; Kpade O. Laurentin Hounkpatin; Jean Hounkpè; Luc Ollivier Sintondji

Addresses: Applied Science and Technology Research Institute, P.O. Box 7047, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso ' National Institute of Water-University of Abomey-Calavi, P.O. Box 526, Cotonou, Benin ' Pan African University of Water and Energy Sciences, P.O. Box 119, 13000 Tlemcen, Algeria ' National University of Horticulture and Landscape Management, P.O. Box 43, Ketou, Benin ' Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7014, SE-75007, Uppsala, Sweden ' National Institute of Water-University of Abomey-Calavi, P.O. Box 526, Cotonou, Benin ' National Institute of Water-University of Abomey-Calavi, P.O. Box 526, Cotonou, Benin

Abstract: Applying a validated hydrological model is a common approach in climate change impact studies. The current study used an ensemble of five regional climate models and two hydrological simulation models (HBV-light and GR4J). Both models were successfully calibrated and validated with coefficients of determination-R² and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiencies-NSE ranging between 0.64 and 0.88. Compared to the reference period (1976-2005), the projected temperature shows an increase for the future periods 2021-2100, whereas for the projected precipitation change, a mixed trend is expected. The projected discharge change is very similar to the precipitation signal. The results further indicate for some climate datasets that, the climate-induced discharge change is lower than 50 mm per year for both HBV-light and GR4J, while the inter-comparison of discharges between the two hydrological models indicates differences exceeding 100 mm per year. Therefore, the choice of the hydrological model overscores the impact of the projected climate change.

Keywords: climate change; CORDEX; discharge; HBV-light; GR4J; hydrological model selection; climate change impact; tropical catchment; Burkina Faso.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2024.140854

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2024 Vol.18 No.3, pp.285 - 299

Received: 05 May 2021
Accepted: 26 Jul 2022
Published online: 03 Sep 2024 *

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