Title: Project's duration prediction: traditional tools or simulation?

Authors: Viktor K. Diamantas, Konstantinos A. Kirytopoulos, Vrassidas N. Leopoulos

Addresses: Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, Mechanical Engineering School, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Street, 15780 Athens, Greece. ' Financial and Management Engineering Department, Business School, University of the Aegean, 31 Fostini Street, 82100, Chios, Greece. ' Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, Mechanical Engineering School, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Street, 15780 Athens, Greece

Abstract: Project schedule development with CPM cannot handle uncertainty, thus PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are the most frequently used methods from best-in-class companies. This study compares the results of the standard MCS with those of PERT and addresses the incorporation of project risk management into the two approaches. It defines the related advantages and disadvantages, found in the literature and is illustrated through a case study. The findings reveal that the modelling of risk is more robust when the MCS is used, leading to the conclusion that simulation is a more efficient tool than the other stochastic methods.

Keywords: project management; risk management; scheduling; PERT; Monte Carlo simulation; MCS; case study; modelling; uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1504/WREMSD.2007.014049

World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 2007 Vol.3 No.3/4, pp.317 - 333

Published online: 13 Jun 2007 *

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