Title: Uncertainty analysis via aggregation operators for cost estimation in a large-scale nuclear project

Authors: Da Ruan, Tianrui Li

Addresses: Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK-CEN), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium and Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281 (S9), 9000 Gent, Belgium. ' Department of Mathematics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, China and The Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK-CEN), Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol, Belgium

Abstract: Cost estimation for large projects can be difficult because of many complex factors and uncertainties involved. It is often the case that only very rough guesses of actual costs may be provided. In this paper, we will examine the various types of uncertainty in the cost estimation problem of a large-scale nuclear project, namely, the MYRRHA project at SCK_CEN. We will then use a few examples from the conceptual phase of the project to illustrate the practical use of a software package, the IDS Cost Estimator, in cost analysis of nuclear systems. It is demonstrated that the IDS Cost Estimator can take care of several types of uncertainties in cost estimation and provide user friendly interfaces for data collection, reporting and display. Moreover, several common aggregation operators are extended under the ordered 3-tuple space to achieve aggregation of any items and uncertainty analysis by output of the IDS cost estimator.

Keywords: aggregation operators; cost estimation; decision support systems; DSS; fuzzy logic; interval uncertainty; MYRRHA; probability uncertainty; Belgium; uncertainty analysis; large-scale projects; nuclear industry; nuclear costs; nuclear systems.

DOI: 10.1504/IJNKM.2007.014041

International Journal of Nuclear Knowledge Management, 2007 Vol.2 No.4, pp.375 - 395

Published online: 12 Jun 2007 *

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