Title: Simulation of EPC consortium partnership stability and data based on prospect theory

Authors: Judan Hu; Shuang Tang; Minjie Yang

Addresses: School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, NanChong, Sichuan, 637000, China ' School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, NanChong, Sichuan, 637000, China ' School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, NanChong, Sichuan, 637000, China

Abstract: For the rapid promotion and healthy development of the EPC general contracting mode, this paper constructs a game model for the stability evolution of the EPC consortium tripartite cooperation relationship based on the prospect theory from the perspective of the EPC consortium led by the design unit, analyses the behavioural interaction mechanism of the game subjects and the factors affecting the system evolution, and uses system dynamics for data simulation. The results show that the rate at which the EPC consortium triad eventually evolves into a stable cooperation strategy is positively related to the initial probability, loss avoidance coefficient, gain sensitivity, and gain/loss sharing coefficient, and negatively related to the risk pursuit coefficient. The steady state of the system is influenced by the strength of penalty and the level of regulation/cooperation cost. This paper can provide insights and a theoretical basis for the long-term stable development of EPC consortium.

Keywords: EPC consortium; cooperative stability; evolutionary games; prospect theory; system dynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMTM.2024.139515

International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 2024 Vol.38 No.4/5, pp.406 - 425

Received: 06 Feb 2023
Accepted: 07 Mar 2023
Published online: 03 Jul 2024 *

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