Title: Earthquakes and market capitalisation: a historical perspective using panel data

Authors: Andrés Ramírez; Nezih Altay

Addresses: Department of Finance, Bryant University, 1150 Douglas Pike, Smithfield, RI 02917, USA ' Department of Management, DePaul University, 1 E. Jackson Blvd., Suite 7000, Chicago, IL 60604, USA

Abstract: We test if earthquakes could create market value as companies invest to recover. Using a large firm-level data set spanning 299 earthquakes, in 15 years, in over 50 countries, we find evidence consistent with the creative destruction hypothesis. However, a closer look shows that earthquakes create value for firms in less developed countries (non-G8) while destroying value in developed countries (G8). We interpret this as a sign that innovation can be easier in poorer countries where the economies of scale of adopting new technologies are bigger. We also report a magnitude effect: large earthquakes tend to increase firm value while smaller earthquakes are associated with value destruction. We posit that large earthquakes trigger large corporate responses that increase productivity while smaller earthquakes are dealt with temporary measures. Finally, we report new moderators of the positive impact: multinationality of the firm, a country's disaster preparedness and a country's non-life insurance consumption.

Keywords: market capitalisation; earthquakes damage; cross-country.

DOI: 10.1504/GBER.2024.136427

Global Business and Economics Review, 2024 Vol.30 No.2, pp.129 - 153

Received: 14 Feb 2022
Accepted: 15 Jul 2022
Published online: 01 Feb 2024 *

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