Title: Risk assessment method of transmission and transformation project cost based on Monte Carlo simulation

Authors: Bo Yu; Tao Yu

Addresses: State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co. Ltd., Yinchuan, 750001, China ' State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co. Ltd., Yinchuan, 750001, China

Abstract: In order to improve the level of correlation coefficient and Matthews correlation coefficient of the evaluation results, a risk assessment method of transmission and transformation project cost based on Monte Carlo simulation is designed. Establish the project cost evaluation index system, and introduce the range standardisation method to standardise the evaluation index. The Monte Carlo simulation process is established based on the trigonometric distribution function, and the probability of the occurrence of different indicators is sampled and analysed. The weighted Euclidean distance method is used to calculate the fit between the cost risk status and the Monte Carlo simulation model, and the cost risk measurement is reflected according to the calculated value. The experimental results show that the maximum correlation coefficient of this method can reach 0.99, and the maximum Matthews correlation coefficient can reach 0.949, indicating that the evaluation result of this method is more reliable.

Keywords: project cost; cost trend; indicator system; Monte Carlo simulation; risk assessment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSD.2023.134416

International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2023 Vol.26 No.3/4, pp.278 - 290

Received: 03 Feb 2023
Accepted: 15 May 2023
Published online: 20 Oct 2023 *

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