Title: Study on early warning evaluation of project investment risk considering comprehensive simulation method

Authors: Weina Li; Zhinan Cui; Xiaochun Tang

Addresses: College of Humanities and Information, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun, 130000, China ' College of Humanities and Information, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun, 130000, China ' College of Humanities and Information, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun, 130000, China

Abstract: In order to overcome the problems of risk assessment method, such as too long assessment time and poor assessment accuracy, this paper proposes a project investment risk early warning assessment method considering the comprehensive simulation method. First, design a risk index system; secondly, the expert weight of project investment risk indicators is determined, and the objective weight of experts is calculated using similarity information; then, combined with CRITIC method, the mixed weights of index attributes are calculated; finally, the comprehensive simulation method is introduced to realise risk early warning evaluation. The results show that the accuracy of early warning under this method is always higher than 92%, and the evaluation time is always within 20 days, which effectively validates the effect of early warning evaluation of project investment risk under this method.

Keywords: comprehensive simulation method; CRITIC method; expert subjective weight method; project investment risk; evaluation matrix.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSD.2023.134410

International Journal of Sustainable Development, 2023 Vol.26 No.3/4, pp.306 - 317

Received: 31 Jan 2023
Accepted: 18 May 2023
Published online: 20 Oct 2023 *

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