Title: Prediction method of carbon emission trading price based on claim rights

Authors: Jing Zeng

Addresses: Fan Li Business College, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Nanyang, 473000, China

Abstract: Predicting carbon emissions trading prices is of great significance for improving market transparency. Therefore, this paper proposes a carbon emissions trading price prediction method based on claim rights. Firstly, a factor analysis model to determine six factors that affect the price of carbon emission rights is constructed, including the ratio of industrial added value, coal price, maximum temperature, closing price, natural gas closing price, and policy. Then, a transfer rate matrix is constructed based on Markov functions, and a carbon emission rights option price prediction model is constructed using claim rights. Finally, the influence parameters are substituted into the prediction model, and the European call option method is used to determine the equivalent consideration expectations, achieving the transaction price solution. The results show that the prediction error of this method is only +0.0014 yuan/ton, with an accuracy of 96%, indicating that this method can improve the prediction effect of transaction prices.

Keywords: right of claim; carbon emission rights; transaction price; European call options; transfer rate matrix; Markov.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2023.134161

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2023 Vol.18 No.3/4/5, pp.246 - 256

Received: 31 Mar 2023
Accepted: 03 Jul 2023
Published online: 12 Oct 2023 *

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