Title: Evaluating the performance of natural agriculture in Cameroon by the probabilistic elicitation of expert knowledge

Authors: Gérard De La Paix Bayiha; Georges Kobou; David Makowski; Syndhia Mathe; Ludovic Temple

Addresses: CIRAD, UMR INNOVATION, 73 Rue Jean-François Breton, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INNOVATION, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France; Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaounde II, BP 1365, Yaounde, Cameroon ' Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaounde II, BP 1365, Yaounde, Cameroon ' INRAE AgroParisTech, University of Paris-Saclay, UMR518 16 Rue Claude Bernard 75231 Paris, France ' CIRAD, UMR INNOVATION, 73 Rue Jean-François Breton, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INNOVATION, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France; Science and Technology Policy Research Institute, CSIR-STEPRI, Accra, Ghana ' CIRAD, UMR INNOVATION, 73 Rue Jean-François Breton, F-34398 Montpellier, France; INNOVATION, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France

Abstract: In Africa, different forms of organic agriculture exist, particularly in Cameroon where uncertified natural farming systems have a prominent place. Recognition of such systems by public policies has been limited due to a lack of statistical and experimental data. To address this issue, we use a probabilistic elicitation of expert knowledge to assess the performances of natural cassava and plantain systems in the Centre Region of Cameroon. In total, 55 experts were interviewed to compare the effects of natural and conventional agriculture on local food security through three key indicators: average yield, farm-gate prices, and labour quantity. Our results showed that the yields of natural agriculture were generally lower than conventional yields while the farm-gate prices of both types of system were similar due to the absence of a specific market for natural farming. Additionally, the amounts of labour elicited by farmers were more variable in conventional systems than in natural systems.

Keywords: natural agriculture; conventional agriculture; probabilistic elicitation; food security; Cameroon.

DOI: 10.1504/IJARGE.2023.133316

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, 2023 Vol.19 No.1, pp.1 - 21

Received: 02 Jul 2022
Accepted: 30 Nov 2022
Published online: 12 Sep 2023 *

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