Title: Potential impact of climate change on shifting the calendar of rainfed crops produced in Jordan

Authors: Luna Al-Hadidi; Amer Sweity

Addresses: National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), P.O. Box 639, Baaqa, 19381, Jordan ' National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), P.O. Box 639, Baaqa, 19381, Jordan

Abstract: Climate change alters the usual pattern of rainfall distribution and temperature in the East Mediterranean region. We investigated the impact of climate change on true season onset, and crop calendar for field crops grown in areas with Semi-Arid-Sub-Humid Mediterranean climate. Analysis showed a clear reduction of annual rainfall for the zone with rainfall more than 200 mm, and above 1°C rise in air temperature for all zones. Generally, the rainfall reduction occurred, in descending order, along the South-North direction. A new approach is proposed to identify the true season onset and the end of the effective rainy season. Shifting the true season onset consequently reduces the crop-growing season and hence the yield. Reducing annual rainfall and the length of effective rainfall season, rising air temperature, and the sharp increase in the number of heat waves will have profound negative impacts on both plant growth and yield.

Keywords: climate change; season onset; crop calendar; Mediterranean climate; global warming; seasonal variation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2023.131405

International Journal of Global Warming, 2023 Vol.30 No.3, pp.282 - 295

Received: 01 Jan 2022
Received in revised form: 06 Sep 2022
Accepted: 13 Nov 2022
Published online: 09 Jun 2023 *

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