Title: Statistical temporal analysis of trend and variability of rainfall in Surat district, Gujarat, India

Authors: Fenil R. Gandhi; Jayantilal N. Patel

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat, India ' Civil Engineering Department, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat, India

Abstract: Rainfall is a key component of the water cycle, and its variability is important for both scientific and socio-economic considerations. In the present analysis, the temporal variability of precipitation has been investigated on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis for Surat District of Gujarat State of India. In order to develop rainfall trend, analysis has been conducted using different indices for 118 years of precipitation data (1901-2018). This study revealed that in annual precipitation there is a positive trend since 2003. A large seasonality is observed for the region and nearly all precipitation is coming during the southwest monsoon. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and rainfall anamoly analysis (RAI) indicated that the study area does not have the threat of drought conditions. The multi-statistical method approach and rigorous interpretation will be useful to readers across the globe to solve issues. Crop water management, flood management, storm-water management, and water balance studies require rainfall analysis. Hence, this study is useful to carry on further research on said topics at the local level.

Keywords: rainfall; drought analysis; rainfall anomaly index; RAI; seasonality index; SI; Gujarat; India.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2023.131175

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2023 Vol.15 No.4, pp.373 - 389

Received: 11 May 2021
Accepted: 25 Nov 2021
Published online: 01 Jun 2023 *

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