Title: Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a delayed SIRC epidemic model for Covid-19

Authors: Geethamalini Shankar; Venkataraman Prabhu

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, School of Science and Humanities, Sathyabama Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai, 600119, Tamil Nadu, India ' Department of Medical Research, SRM Medical College Hospital and Research Centre, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai, 603203, Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract: This paper examines the spread of COVID-19 during the pandemic using the SIRC model and transmission delay. We investigated both the infection-free (E₀) and the infected (E₁) steady states are locally stable. We evaluated the duration of the delay for which the steadiness pursues to be maintained, by the Nyquist criterion. The Hopf bifurcation is used to explain the nature of the disease at the start of a 2nd cycle and the kinds of interventions needed to end it. Theoretical results are supported through numerical simulations.

Keywords: bifurcation; COVID-19; cross-immunity; SIRC model; stability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSDE.2023.130308

International Journal of Dynamical Systems and Differential Equations, 2023 Vol.13 No.2, pp.128 - 143

Received: 21 Oct 2021
Received in revised form: 16 Sep 2022
Accepted: 20 Sep 2022
Published online: 17 Apr 2023 *

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