Title: A PERT model based on the Dampster and Shafer's theory of evidence – application to product development

Authors: Francesco Lolli; Antonio Maria Coruzzolo; Matteo Zironi

Addresses: Department of Sciences and Methods for Engineering, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Amendola 2 – Padiglione Morselli, 42100 Reggio Emilia, Italy ' Department of Sciences and Methods for Engineering, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Amendola 2 – Padiglione Morselli, 42100 Reggio Emilia, Italy ' Department of Sciences and Methods for Engineering, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Amendola 2 – Padiglione Morselli, 42100 Reggio Emilia, Italy

Abstract: The epistemic uncertainty affecting the estimates of lead times in new product development may have significant side effects over the management of the said projects, and nowadays an effective tool to manage this kind of uncertainty is still missing for new product development projects. In this paper we propose a new project evaluation and review technique (PERT) model based on lead times defined by the theory of evidence. The main advantages of our proposal come from the inclusion and measurement of the epistemic uncertainty lying into lead time estimates along the PERT network, which is further analysed by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The work is completed by applying this model to a real instance of new product development process within a company, and the results obtained are analysed by investigating how different combination and transformation rules affect the probability distribution of the activity lead times.

Keywords: project evaluation and review technique; PERT; Dempster and Shafer theory; new product development; uncertainty management; project management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPQM.2023.129617

International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management, 2023 Vol.38 No.2, pp.143 - 165

Received: 26 Jan 2021
Accepted: 04 May 2021
Published online: 17 Mar 2023 *

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