Title: Effective drought analysis by different methodological integrations in Yeşilirmak Basin, Turkey

Authors: Uğur Serencam

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Three different methodologies are integrated to identify hydrological drought characteristics in a drainage basin based on annual runoff discharge time series. First the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are identified by a set of risk levels for engineering water resources management. The standard precipitation index (SPI) is applied for 'normal', 'moderately', 'severely' and 'extremely' drought classification purpose. Regional drought assessment is accomplished by means of percentages of each drought class. For climate change impact assessment innovative trend analysis (ITA) is applied to SPI time series. The application of the methodology is presented for six sets of runoff data from the Northern Black Sea Yeilrmak drainage basin in Turkey. It is observed that each sub-drainage basin is subject to runoff volume reduction due to the climate change. The findings of this paper shed light on future similar studies by taking into account mentioned methodologies.

Keywords: classification; drought; index; probability; runoff; risk; standard; trend; Turkey.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2023.129495

International Journal of Global Warming, 2023 Vol.29 No.3, pp.278 - 288

Received: 15 May 2022
Received in revised form: 28 Jul 2022
Accepted: 31 Jul 2022
Published online: 10 Mar 2023 *

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