Title: Exploring hidden patterns in rainfall in Mula-Mutha and Bhima sub-basin of Upper Krishna Valley using statistical trend analysis for water resources planning

Authors: R.S. Jagtap; Mohan M. Kale; V.K. Gedam

Addresses: National Statistical Office, Data Quality Assurance Division, 7th Floor, Lilamani Corporate Heights, Vadaj, Ahmedabad 380013, India ' Department of Statistics and Centre for Advanced Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411007, India ' Department of Statistics and Centre for Advanced Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411007, India

Abstract: In-depth information on rainfall patterns is invaluable for planning and development of water resources. Trend analysis of rainfall datasets in Mula-Mutha and Bhima sub-basin characterised by strong presence of seasonality, serial correlation and skewed distribution carried out using robust non-parametric methods showed statistically significant rising trend in the plateau region and no or falling trend in the Western Ghat region. An interesting semi-circular shaped cyclic pattern, with period around 11-18 years was visualised during the comprehensive rainfall pattern analysis. This rudimentary pattern could possibly be linked to the 'solar cycles'. The outcome can credibly be used in framing local and region-specific medium-term plans of 11-15 years duration for water resources planning to adapt and cope up with rain-deficient and flood years. Development of robust trend analysis methods to address likely cyclic patterns could be taken up further for research.

Keywords: cyclic pattern; Mann-Kendall test; rainfall; seasonality; Sen's slope; serial correlation; trend.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2023.128740

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2023 Vol.15 No.2, pp.154 - 176

Received: 29 Apr 2021
Accepted: 30 Jul 2021
Published online: 02 Feb 2023 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article