Title: The study of climate change related drought risk using weather research and forecasting model over Eastern Africa, Ethiopia

Authors: Anil Kumar Medikonda; Anirudh Bhowmick

Addresses: Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Andhra Pradesh, India ' Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

Abstract: As the drought research serves potential benefits to the management of its allied sectors, it demands research reasons for climate changes over Eastern Africa. The research paper mainly aims to forecast the drought years using WRF model dataset. For selected meteorological parameters, MBE, RMSE and MAE, have been computed and compared to estimate the correlation with the WRF model with Belg season and the Kirmet season in Ethiopia. The research paper discusses various primary causes for the formation of long and large-scale drought in the Arba Minch and Chencha region during the study period 2001-2010. The research expounds how these less to moderate and extreme conditions can be attributed to the combinational occurrence of La Nina with negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and Hybrid El Nino with NAO and ElNino-Modoki. As Ethiopia is a rainy agriculture-based country, the study is promising for the farmer's fraternity in many dimensions including successful drought forecasting.

Keywords: weather research and forecasting; WRF; ElNino; North Atlantic oscillations; East Africa low-level jet; sea-surface temperature; SST; Indian Ocean dipole; IOD; drought; tele-connections; QBO; IOBM; MODOKI; hybrid ElNino.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2023.128721

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2023 Vol.15 No.2, pp.123 - 139

Received: 30 Dec 2020
Accepted: 16 Jun 2021

Published online: 02 Feb 2023 *

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