Title: On the black swan risk dynamical evaluation

Authors: Sergei Zuev; Petr Kabalyants

Addresses: Department of Computer Science, Belgorod Shoukhov State University of Technologies, Belgorod, 308012, Russia ' Department of Computer Science, Belgorod Shoukhov State University of Technologies, Belgorod, 308012, Russia

Abstract: The paper was inspired by comprehensive researches in the field of video data information security. Video data is considered as a long range of frames. This work is targeted on the problem of correlations between the already happened and upcoming incidents in terms of their probability. The main idea of the paper is to take into account some hidden events that provoke the incidents. The possible incident is modelled as a finite sequence of those events. The statistical ensemble approach is used in order to evaluate an incident probability if there were no registered incidents in the system yet. It is shown that the probability can be evaluated dynamically if there is enough data about previous incidents in the statistical ensemble. Thus, it is supposed that the risk manager can operatively gather information from the similar information systems.

Keywords: black swan; risk evaluation; dynamical risk evaluation; Weibull distribution; computer aided risk evaluation; information risk assessment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2022.128707

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2022 Vol.25 No.1/2, pp.56 - 66

Received: 26 Jul 2020
Accepted: 08 Jan 2021
Published online: 02 Feb 2023 *