Title: Analysis and simulation of SIR model for COVID-19 spreading with the effect of offline learning and vaccination: a case study of Indonesia

Authors: Syafruddin Side; Nasiah Badwi; Nurlina Sjahrir; Muhammad Isbar Pratama; Muhammad Rifandi; Suwardi Annas

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia ' Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia ' Department of Art, Faculty of Art and Design, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia ' Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia ' Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Sulawesi Barat, Majene, Indonesia ' Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia

Abstract: This research discusses the analysis and simulation of SIR model for COVID-19 spreading with regards to the effect of offline learning and vaccination. The results of the analysis shows that the COVID-19 case in Indonesia is at a stable stage. The SIR model was chosen because it is one of the basic methods in the epidemiological model like COVID-19. The simulation results shows that if offline learning is not enforced but 99% of the students are vaccinated, the rate of spread of COVID-19 slows down and the rate of recovery has increased in just five months. The results also shown that if 50% offline learning is carried out, the basic reproduction number is R₀ = 3.3715, which means that a student infected with COVID-19 can infect 11 other people and if 99% offline learning is carried out, the basic reproduction number is obtained R₀ = 6.6757, which means that a student infected with COVID-19 can infect 22 other people in Indonesia.

Keywords: COVID-19 mathematical model; SIR model; offline learning effect; vaccination effect; Indonesia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMNO.2023.127837

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 2023 Vol.13 No.1, pp.1 - 18

Received: 18 Jan 2022
Accepted: 24 Apr 2022
Published online: 19 Dec 2022 *

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