Title: Fatigue test planning using reliability and confidence simulation

Authors: Sankaran Mahadevan, Ruoxue Zhang

Addresses: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, USA. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, USA

Abstract: This paper develops a methodology for reliability test planning using computational reliability methods. Empirical methods of reliability estimation are based on tests on actual components and the use of classical statistics. Computational methods of reliability analysis propagate the uncertainty information about primitive variables through the system computational model to estimate the reliability. This paper combines the two approaches for cost-effective reliability testing. The proposed method also includes the uncertainties due to limitations and bias in data and the computational model. An adaptive method is developed to determine the number of tests needed to achieve a desired confidence level in the reliability estimate, by combining computational prediction and test data. The proposed approach is applied to the probabilistic life prediction of a composite helicopter rotor hub under fatigue loading, based on the delamination failure analysis of composite laminates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; composites; confidence bounds; delamination; fatigue; life prediction; reliability analysis; reliability testing; uncertainty modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMPT.2001.001268

International Journal of Materials and Product Technology, 2001 Vol.16 No.4/5, pp.317-332

Published online: 01 Jul 2003 *

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