Title: Modelling the impact of lock-downs in top-4 COVID-19 spreading states of India

Authors: Adarsh Anand; Mohini Agarwal; Niyati Aggrawal; Navneet Bhatt

Addresses: Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110007, India ' Amity School of Business, Amity University, Uttar Pradesh, Noida, 201303, India ' Jaypee Institute of Information and Technology, Noida 201309, India ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India

Abstract: A pandemic like COVID-19 being a highly infectious disease has severely affected mankind and business activities. Seeing the critical situation, the honourable Prime Minister of India has called for a lockdown in the entire country in order to suppress the spread of this pandemic. While there are many debates about the spread of disease and lockdown in the entire country, we wish to mathematically understand the diffusion of this pandemic in the context of four highly infected states of India. Moreover, through this paper, we wish to examine the impact of these lockdown periods in order to understand the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: bass model; coronavirus; diffusion; lockdown; pandemic; logistic distribution; full information maximum likelihood; rate of diffusion; prediction; MSE.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCSM.2022.125905

International Journal of Computing Science and Mathematics, 2022 Vol.15 No.4, pp.408 - 420

Received: 25 Jun 2020
Accepted: 20 Jul 2020
Published online: 04 Oct 2022 *

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