Title: Predictive modelling of boreal forest resources in regulation of the carbon cycle and mitigation of the global warming

Authors: Erland Georgievich Kolomyts

Addresses: Russian Academy of Sciences, Samara Research Center, Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Komzina str., 10, Togliatti, 445003, Russia

Abstract: It is described that the ecological resources of forests is their ability to absorb the greenhouse gases and accordingly to mitigate the climate fluctuations. A forecast empirical-statistical analysis of carbon cycle regulation by the forest cover of the Volga River basin is presented. The adsorption potential of primary and derivatives of boreal and nemoral forests has been established, their ability to mitigate climate changes, including reducing anthropogenic warming, has been evaluated. The losses of ecological resources in forests since the beginning of intensive forest and land use in them were quantitatively assessed. Thermo-arid transformation of forest ecosystems leads to the general decrease in positive carbon balance in most groups of forest formations. Verification of the forecast calculations of the carbon balance was carried out using measurements in the forests of Central Canada. A numerical experiment was executed to assess the effect of the elastic stability of forest formations on their carbon balance.

Keywords: boreal forest ecosystems; indigenous and derivative forests; biological cycle; climate change; carbon balance; forest ecological resources; empirical-statistical modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2022.10049109

International Journal of Global Warming, 2022 Vol.27 No.4, pp.333 - 364

Received: 11 Aug 2021
Accepted: 19 Dec 2021

Published online: 29 Jul 2022 *

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