Title: Using a system dynamics model for sustainable energy portfolios: a case study in Iran

Authors: Alireza Mokhtar; Jennifer Scott

Addresses: KiwiRail, ANZ Raranga, 286 Mt. Wellington Highway, Auckland 1060, New Zealand ' Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand

Abstract: Transitioning the energy source dependencies to create sustainable portfolios entails decreasing the share of fossil fuels and increasing the share of renewable energies. For many countries this leads to required consideration of impact for long-term development plans. In Iran, a resource-based economy where fossil fuel energies have historically contributed to large portions of the energy portfolio, restructuring this portfolio becomes complicated with respect to the interactions of energy systems with sustainable development areas: economic, social, and environmental systems. Using Iran as a case study, this paper presents the development, validation, and use of a system dynamics model to consider future outcomes of diversifying the country's energy portfolio. Five scenarios demonstrate how the model can support decision-making for restructuring the energy portfolio to improve the country's sustainable development indicators. The paper suggests such modelling could provide clarity and confidence for decision and policymakers to progress development plans for sustainable energy portfolios.

Keywords: system dynamics; sustainable development; energy portfolio; decision making; renewable energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRET.2022.123970

International Journal of Renewable Energy Technology, 2022 Vol.13 No.3, pp.213 - 235

Received: 21 Jun 2021
Accepted: 28 Jan 2022
Published online: 05 Jul 2022 *

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