Title: The effects of shocks on the dismissal in the electro-electronics sector: evidence from Brazil
Authors: Renan Mitsuo Ueda; Adriano Mendonça Souza; Wesley Vieira Da Silva; Claudimar Pereira Da Veiga; Francisca Mendonça Souza
Addresses: Statistics Department, Federal University of Santa Maria – UFSM, Building 13, Office 1205 C, CCNE/UFSM, Santa Maria, 1000 Roraima Ave, RS, Brazil ' Statistics Department, Federal University of Santa Maria – UFSM, Building 13, Office 1205 C, CCNE/UFSM, Santa Maria, 1000 Roraima Ave, RS, Brazil ' Federal University of Alagoas – UFAL, Av. Lourival Melo Mota, S/N, Tabuleiro do Martins, 57072-900, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil ' Postgraduate Program in Organizations Management, Leadership and Decision (PPGOLD), Federal University of Parana – UFPR, 632 Lothário Meissner Ave, Jardim Botânico, 80210-170, Curitiba, PR, Brazil ' ISCTE – Institudo Universitário de Lisboa, Avenida das Forças Armadas, 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal
Abstract: This research aims to investigate the short and long-term relationship between the number of dismissals in the Brazilian electro-electronics sector and the macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product, Brazil's total exports, monthly average of the dollar quotation and the broad national consumer index, from May 2003 to September 2018. To verify the interrelationship between the variables, we used the vector autoregressive (VAR) models and vector error correction (VEC). The analysis of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition helped to understand the dynamics of the electro-electronics industry, showing that in the long-term, part of the variance of the sector's dismissal (28.64%) is explained by the broad national consumer index. Abrupt changes in the analysed macroeconomic variables cause fluctuations in the number of dismissals in the Brazilian electro-electronic sector for approximately four to seven months.
Keywords: electric-electronic sector; econometric models; macroeconomics; vector autoregressive; VAR; vector error correction; VEC; socio-economic planning; Brazil.
International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2022 Vol.23 No.4, pp.527 - 548
Received: 06 Jan 2020
Accepted: 04 Dec 2020
Published online: 01 Jun 2022 *