Title: Using the system dynamics model on sustainable safety development of civil aviation

Authors: Fang Chen; Bichen Xu; Danhong Fan

Addresses: College of Economics and Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, 300300, China ' College of Economics and Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, 300300, China ' Yunnan Airport Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan, 650228, China

Abstract: With the rapid expansion of flight services, civil aviation airports and air traffic controllers have long been operating at full load; the support capability cannot meet the actual development needs, which is placing increasing the pressure on safety considerations. Hence, in-depth studies on the dynamic relationships among support capability, safety and development and the timely adjustment of policies are imperative. A 'growth and underinvestment' model is used to construct a dynamic model of civil aviation sustainable safety development. Through the use of VENSIM software as a modelling tool and Tianjin as an example for simulation, the policy scenario for realising the sustainable safety development of civil aviation in this region is designed. Based on the simulation results, policy suggestions for the sustainable safety development of this region are proposed. It is also proven that the model can be applied to other fields.

Keywords: civil aviation; safety; support capability; sustainable development; system dynamics; causal analysis; china; air traffic control; model application; policy simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2022.122532

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2022 Vol.22 No.1/2, pp.3 - 23

Received: 23 Apr 2020
Accepted: 20 Aug 2020
Published online: 03 May 2022 *

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