Title: Stock indices price prediction in real time data stream using deep learning with extra-tree ensemble optimisation

Authors: Monika Arya; Hanumat G. Sastry

Addresses: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bhilai Institute of Technology, Durg, India ' School of Computer Science, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, India

Abstract: Stock prices follow random walk motion and are highly volatile. Earlier prediction models that use 'machine learning (ML)' and neuro-computational techniques for forecasting stock prices are more complex and less accurate. In this work, a novel deep learning with extra-tree ensemble (DELETE) optimisation for predicting stock indices price trends in real-time data stream is proposed. Each decision tree in the extra-tree (ET) forest selects k best feature to optimise the loss. ET ensemble aggregates the decisions from multiple de-correlated decision trees, thus normalising the total reduction in optimisation parameter. Finally, k highly predictive stock technical indicators (STIs) have been selected to supply as tensor to model. The model performance has been evaluated over three benchmark classifiers with three popular National Stock Exchange (NSE) indices. The daily prediction model achieved an accuracy up to 78.9% and average accuracy of 66.61%, which is up to 30.2% higher than benchmark models.

Keywords: deep learning; ensemble learning; machine learning; neural network; stock indices prediction; predictive model; extra-tree optimisation; real time data streams.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCSE.2022.122208

International Journal of Computational Science and Engineering, 2022 Vol.25 No.2, pp.140 - 151

Received: 15 Nov 2020
Accepted: 24 Apr 2021

Published online: 12 Apr 2022 *

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