Title: Investigating traffic congestion in Shanghai: a system dynamics approach

Authors: Ying Qian, Yongguang Zhong, Jing Yuan

Addresses: Faculty of Engineering and Science, Security and Quality in Organization, Agder University College, Serviceboks 509, Groosvn. 36, Grimstad NO-4898, Norway. ' Department of Management Science and Engineering, Qingdao University, 308 Ningxia Road, Qingdao, ShanDong 266071, PR China. ' IBM China Limited, 24/F IBM Tower, 2A Gong Ti Road, Beijing 100027, PR China

Abstract: Road congestion happens when road demand exceeds road supply. Therefore, people deem that constructing new roads – increasing the supply – can solve the problem. Shanghai has invested heavily in road construction since 1990s. Consequently, road congestion in Shanghai has been relieved. However, road supply can also stimulate road demand. Mainly, private cars will be more frequently used. This feedback was ignored before due to low personal income. Nowadays, with the fast economic development, an increasing amount of people can afford a car. Hence, it is necessary to consider this feedback when investigating the traffic problem. The system dynamics model developed in this study shows that road congestion will become more severe in the future if only increasing road supply. This result suggests that alternative policies, such as promoting public transportation should be emphasised.

Keywords: system dynamics; traffic congestion; road demand; road supply; China; Shanghai; public transportation; policy making.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSOI.2006.012162

International Journal of Services Operations and Informatics, 2006 Vol.1 No.4, pp.363 - 379

Published online: 25 Jan 2007 *

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