Title: Exploring Brexit implications: the impact of longer journey times

Authors: Bernard Fingleton

Addresses: Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK

Abstract: Brexit implies longer journey times between UK and EU regions. In this paper the elasticity of trade with respect to journey time by goods vehicles is estimated, and the impact of this on employment is evaluated using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The estimator allows for the presence of endogenous and predetermined causal variables, regional interdependence, and attempts to control for common factors causing macro-economic variation over the estimation period. The estimates show that a job shortfall can be expected in both the UK and EU regions, with considerable diversity of outcome across regions.

Keywords: Brexit; journey times; dynamic spatial panel model; regional employment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2022.120496

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2022 Vol.12 No.1/2, pp.174 - 196

Received: 29 Apr 2020
Accepted: 03 Sep 2020

Published online: 24 Jan 2022 *

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